Forex News Trading

Senin, 26 Januari 2009

Economic news releases often evoke strong moves in the currency market, creating a lot of short-term trading opportunities for breakout traders.

However, not all news reports are tradable. Some of them may not have significant effect on the market while others do. So, before deciding on trading the upcoming news traders may want to find out whether the news is worth trading or not. Traders can find about the significance of the news by looking at the economic calendar's special features, such as, for example, marking all important news in red.



There are two general approaches to trade news:

1 — By "guarding" the breakout channel

Traders simply set Buy and Sell limit orders on both sides of a price channel, so when the news comes out one of the orders will probably be hit. Although this method is very simple, it also carries real risks of potentially hitting two orders: Buy and Sell as the market is shaken by the news report. In such "double-hit" situation traders will face losses on one or sometimes even both trades.

2 — By actually analyzing the data
Traders can predict most probable outcome of the news by looking at such economic calendar fields as: "Forecast" and "Previous". Figures in those fields can give an idea about the current situation...

Then, traders would watch the news report and pay attention to the actual numbers released. If the numbers come as a surprise — means they are not close to what was expected / forecasted, then traders would consider opening trading position regarding to the situation. If the data carries positive surprise — they would open Long position, negative — Short.
This news trading requires more attention from traders, but is also more effective as it carries lesser risks.

When are economic news released?

Currency CountryTime
USD United States8:30 am — 10:00 am EST
GBPUnited Kingdom 2:00 am — 4:30 am EST
EURGermany
ItalyFrance
2:00 am — 6:00 am EST
3:30 am — 5:00 am EST
2:30 am — 4:00 am EST
CHF Switzerland 1:30 am — 5:30 am EST
AUD Australia 5:30 pm — 7:30 pm EST
CADCanada 7:00 am — 8:30 am EST
JPY Japan6:30 pm — 11:30 pm EST


What you should know about trading the news in Forex

1. Even if you do not trade news it is important to know about the date and time the news are due, to be able to prepare to possible short-term extreme market conditions. Some traders, actually, prefer not to trade at all during economic news releases.

2. The fewer the price moves before news releases (when it may seem like everybody has abandoned trading), the greater is a potential for the market to burst out after the news report.

3. Breakouts following the economic news reports exist for very short period of time — from several minutes to several seconds — it is a first reaction of the world to the news.

4. Generally, if the news did not carry any "surprises" — unexpected data — there will often be no significant reaction in the Forex market.

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Forex Fundamental Analysis. Basics

Minggu, 25 Januari 2009

What is fundamental analysis?

Fundamental analysis in Forex is a type of market analysis which involves studying of the economic situation of countries to trade currencies more effectively.

It gives information on how the big political and economical events influence currency market. Figures and statements given in speeches by important politicians and economists are known among the traders as economical announcements that have great impact on currency market moves. In particular, announcements related to United States economy and politics are the primary to keep an eye on.



What is economic calendar?

Economic calendar is created by economists where they predict different economics figures and values according to previous months. It contains next data:
Date — Time — Currency — Data Released — Actual — Forecast — Previous

For example: If the forecast is better than the previous figure, then US dollar usually is going to strengthen against other currencies.
But when news are due, traders have to check the actual data.

If to look at oil prices, a rising price will result in weakening of currencies for countries which depend on huge oil import, e.g. America, Japan.
A good example of detailed economic calendar can be found here: Forex Economic Calendar

How to read Forex Economic Calendar?

Whose speeches to keep an eye on?

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of USA, Secretary of the Treasury, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and so on. Speeches of those prominent people are watched closely by traders.

What are the most powerful figures that move Forex market?

Interest rate
Traditionally, if a country raises its interest rates, its currency will strengthen because investors will shift their assets to that country to gain higher returns.

Employment situation
Decreases in the payroll employment are considered as signs of a weak economic activity that could eventually lead to lower interest rates, which has negative impact on the currency.

Trade balance, budget and treasury budget
A country that has a significant Trade Balance deficit will generally have a weak currency as there will be continuous commercial sellings of its currency.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP is reported quarterly and is followed very closely as it is a primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.
A high GDP figure is usually followed by expectations of higher interest rates, which is mostly positive for the currency.

Less powefull economic indicators are:

Retail sales
It is the first real indicator of the strength of consumer expenditure.

Durable goods
Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates, which is usually supportive for a currency.

How do traders use all this?

There are few useful tips that can be followed:

1. Keep an economic calendar on hand. Watch for the events when data are due to be released.

2. Know what indicator is gaining the most of attention at any given time as it becomes a catalyst for future price moves. For example, when the U.S. dollar is weak traders will watch closely the inflation indicator.

3. When the difference between the expectations and real results occur, watch for corrections in the market price moves.

4. Pay attention to news revisions if any, the situation on the market can change quickly.

Another important thing to consider — your Forex Broker!

Because of the high volume of trades made at the time of important economic announcements some brokers may block or slow down the execution of new trading orders.

For traders it means they should enter the trade before the "major action" begins and, what is more important, they must always have their protective stops placed. Being not able to access the trade desk to close your losing position in time is the most frustrating thing traders should always try to avoid.

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Extra Forex Trading Tips

Jumat, 16 Januari 2009

You can never have too many tips when you are trading!

Tip A. Trading strategies that work well in an up-market may not work in a down-market.
Same as: systems that work well in a good trending market may not be applicable at all to a ranging market. The solution is either to have a system for each type of the market or make sure that one solid system will work well under all market conditions — extensive testing is the way to know the truth.




Tip B. Do not try to pick price tops and bottoms.
It is a very wrong approach that unfortunately many traders have adopted. Searching for bargains is a good thing when you go shopping, but will put you in troubles if applied to Forex trading. Simply spot the trend and join it like other traders who are serious about trading do.

Tip C. Always remind yourself that the first and the last market bars/ticks are the most expensive.
Delay entering the market on the first ticks and be out of the market early. On the open, never trade in the direction of a gap.

Tip D. Never worry about missing out on a trading opportunity.
Do not provoke yourself to take a trade that does not meet all entry rules. Just because it seems to be too good to pass up is not an excuse for trading. You are never going to run out of trades, so be firm and stick to your rules.

Tip E. By using knowledge about currency correlation in Forex traders can easily avoid opening positions that cancel each other
(e.g. +10 pips on one pair and -10 on another = 0). Find out which currency pairs move simultaneously and which — in opposite direction.

Tip F. Did we say: "Have your stop loss order in place"?
Yes we did. Anyway, we will repeat it one more time. Even if your trading system needs no stops, still have it. Not that you are going to use it, but just for the safety of your capital. A sudden huge move in the market may cost you a big portion of your trading account especially if margin call is triggered.

We use insurance for many things in our life, why don't have one for your trading account? For trading systems without a stop loss order — put one on a decent distance, for example 100+ pips. Also do not use too tight stop orders as they will most likely be hit more often then you need to.

Tip G. Spend less time trading Forex but make it quality time.
Trade only when you can be 100% focused. Time spent in front of the monitor does not assume profitability, so don't fool yourself and do not trade half-ready.

Tip H. And finally, it is wrong to trade with the money that you cannot allow to lose.
That is also why traders switching from Demo to real account often may find themselves losing a trade after trade with a system that used to be profitable. This is because with a real account they've got fear to lose money, while on Demo account their minds were free.

Do not trade if you cannot afford to lose your money. Moreover, do not trade if you must make X amount of money per month to pay your bills in order to avoid financial trouble. Trading scared is the best way to mess up all trading rules, discipline and get additional stress.

Trading smart is what we wish you to achieve, and believe us, being focused and serious about the job you do will make you successful!
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Forex Trading Tips

Kamis, 15 Januari 2009

Tip 1. Gamblers go to casino. All unproved, spontaneous actions in Forex trading — are a part of pure gambling.
Any attempt to trade without analysis and studying the market is equal to a game. Game is fun except when you are losing real money...

Tip 2. Never invest money into a real Forex account until you practice on a Forex Demo account!
Allow at least 2 month for demo trading. Consider this: 90% of beginners fail to succeed in the real money market only because of lack of knowledge, practice and discipline. Those remaining 10% of successful traders had been sharpening and shaping their skills on demo accounts for years before entering the real market.
A good demo account to start practicing with could be, for example, FXGame from Oanda.


Tip 3. Go with the trend!
Trend is your friend. Trade with the trend to maximize your chances to succeed. Trading against the trend won't "kill" a trader, but will definitely require more attention, nerves and sharp skills to rich trading goals.

Tip 4. Always take a look at the time frame bigger than the one you've chosen to trade in.
It gives the bigger picture of market price movements and so helps to clearly define the trend. For example, when trading in 15 minute time frame, take a look at 1 hour chart; trading hourly would require obtaining a picture of daily, weekly price movements.

If a trend is hard to spot — choose a bigger time frame. Up and down market patterns are always present. Always make sure you know the dominant trend, unless you are a scalper. Scalpers have no need to spend their time studying big trends, what's happening in the market here and now (during 5-10 minute time frame) should be of only importance to a Forex scalper.

Tip 5. Never risk more than 2-3% of the total trading account.
One important difference between a successful and an unsuccessful trader is that the first is able to survive under unfavorable conditions on the market, while an unsuccessful trader will blow up his account after 5-10 unprofitable trades in the row.

Even with the same trading system 2 traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in the money management approach. To introduce you to money management, let's get one fact: losing 50% of total account requires making 100% return from the rest of money just to restore the original balance.

Tip 6. Put emotions down. Trade calm.
Don't try to revenge after losing the trade. Don't be greedy by adding lots of positions when winning.
Overreaction blocks clear thinking and as a result will cost you money. Overtrading can shake your money management and dramatically increase trading risks.

Tip 7. Choose the time frame that is right for you.
Choosing wise means that you are comfortable and have time enough to analyze the market, place and close orders etc. Some people can't wait for hours for the price to make a move, they like action and therefore prefer smaller time frames. On the contrary, for others 10-15 minutes is a hustle to be able to make the right decision.

Tip 8. Not trading or standing aside is a position.
When in doubt — stay out. If it is not clear where the market will move — don't trade. In this case saving present capital is and absolutely better choice than risking and losing money.

Tip 9. Learn to use protective stops. Respect them and don't move.
Hoping that market will turn in your direction is a very delusive hope. By moving a stop loss further a trader increases his chances to end up with much bigger loss.

When holding to a losing trade too long, and even if funds permit, traders as a rule are very reluctant to accept big losses, thus often continue "hoping for best". In the mean time invested money is stuck in the open trade for unknown period of time (weeks and even months) and cannot be used for opening new positions. Not working money — dead money. Also this will result in constant interest payments for holding open positions.

Tip 10. "Keep it simple, stupid" — applies to indicators, signals and trading strategies.
Too much information will create a controversial picture of when to trade and when not to. To avoid lots of confusion create a simple but working method of trading Forex.

Tip 11. Think about risk/reward ratio before entering each trade.
How much money can you lose in this trade? How much can you gain? Now, make a decision if the trade is worth entering.
Example: if trader is looking for possible 35 pips gain and possible 25 pips of loss, such conditions are not worth trading. Compare it with the situation when a trader has 100-120 pips of potential gain and only 10-20 pips of possible loss. This is the trade to open!

Tip 12. Never add positions to a losing trade. Do add positions when the trade has proven to be profitable.
Don't allow a couple of losing trades in a row become a snowball of losing trades. When it is obviously not a good day, turn the monitor off. Often not trading for one day can help to break a chain of consecutive losses. Trying to get revenge can often make things worse.

Tip 13. Let your profits run.
Let your position be open for as long as the market wishes to reward you. Of course, for this traders need a good exit strategy, otherwise they risk to give all profits back...
Running two or more open trades gives an option to close some positions earlier and keep others running for higher profits.

Tip 14. Cut your losses short.
It's better to finish unprofitable trade quickly than wait for the situation to get worse. Don't put a stop loss too far — it's your money you risk. Better calculate the best spot to enter when a potential loss would be minimized. Again: respect your stop and don't move it "cherishing hopes".

Tip 15. Trade currency pairs in respect to their active market hours.
Learn about overlapping market hours: when two markets are open and highest volume of trades is conducted.
For example, Australian and Japanese trading sessions are overlapped from 8pm to 1 am EST. At that time trader can successfully trade AUD/JPY currency pair.

Tip 16. Choose the right day to trade.
This recomendation is often wrongly taken as an optional thing, because everyone knows that Forex market is open 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Yet, choosing the time to trade can make a difference between successful and hopeless trading.

It's proved and highly recommended not to trade on Mondays, when the market has recently awaken and is making first "probation steps" to form a new or confirm a current trend; and on Fridays afternoon, during the huge volume of closing trades. The best days to trade are Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays.

Tip 17. Learn about Fibonacci levels and how to use them for trading.
Fibonacci can be very helpful in trading, even partially using the study, for example, to determine the best exit, can bring traders to a new edge of trading.

Tip 18. Always ensure that a signaling bar/candle on the chart is fully formed and closed before you enter a trade.
A golden rule of trading: "Always trade what you see, not what you would like to see" is the best explanation here.

Tip 19. If you ask for someone else's advice as about how and when to trade
in other words, choose to rely on live trading signals from other traders, make sure you do it for your benefit, not for disaster. If you use such signals to discover how other traders do analysis and study on the price — you are on the right track and soon you'll be able to do analysis yourself.
But if you're just blindly following recommendations and your only task is to push the correct button... think again.

Tip 20. Using a highly leveraged account comes at a cost.
It will, of course, give a trader more financial gear to trade, but for inexperienced traders high leverage, and, in fact, any Forex leverage can be disastrous. When a trader signs up for a high leverage without knowing how to accurately use it to own advantage, he simply signs up for additional risks that multiply with higher leverage in a tight "friendly" proportion.

Tip 21. Learn to measure trading success by the end of the day, week and then month and year.
Do not judge about your trading success on a single trade. To be successful traders don't need to win every trade, they also don't become rich in one trade — they need to be profitable in a long run.

Tip 22. There is no such thing as a secret approach to understanding the market.
Take the time to develop a solid trading system and find out that the secret to trading success lies in hard work and constant learning.


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